Supply chain disruption Is no longer temporary—It’s structural

Supply chain disruption is no longer a temporary shock—it is a structural condition. From geopolitical instability to raw material volatility, companies are facing a new reality: the availability and cost of packaging materials can directly impact revenue, margin, and market access. For packaging-intensive industries, plastic is no longer just a cost line—it is a strategic risk variable.

As the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth month, the risks for oil supply shock becoming a structural problem increase. Even if by the time you read this the Straits of Hormuz are open, there is a high chance there will be another shock along soon. The current situation is just one more in a string of supply chain disruptions that occurred in the last few years—COVID pandemia, Suez channel being blocked by a stranded vessel, attacks on the marine traffic in Red Sea, chips shortage, memory shortage, etc. Improving a company’s resilience to these shocks is not just a necessity—it’s a survival skill these days.

For many industries, the impact is now hitting closer to home — not just in components or semiconductors, but in something far more fundamental: packaging materials.

As oil prices rise and remain volatile, plastics follow. Availability tightens. Lead times extend. Costs fluctuate unpredictably.

And suddenly, questions that once sat in procurement teams are now being asked at board level:

• How exposed are we to plastic price volatility?
• Do we have sufficient material to maintain production and sales?
• What happens if key suppliers fail to deliver?

These are not operational questions. They are questions of revenue continuity, margin stability, and business resilience.

From compliance to control: Packaging data as a strategic asset

In this environment, data is no longer about reporting—it is about control.

Many organizations already hold vast amounts of packaging data: material composition, supplier flows, recycled content, and regional distribution. Historically, this data has been used primarily for compliance—whether for Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) reporting, plastic taxes, or regulatory disclosures.

SAP Responsible Design and Production is used by many SAP customers for EPR compliance and regulatory reporting, supporting companies across multiple jurisdictions with plastic taxes and extended producer responsibility obligations. But in today’s environment, its value goes far beyond compliance. The same data and capabilities that underpin regulatory reporting can be used to provide real-time insight into packaging flows, material exposure, and supply chain risk—turning compliance into a foundation for resilience. The linked video shows how different apps in SAP Responsible Design & Production solution can be combined to collect these insights.

Designing out risk: The strategic role of material composition

The most resilient companies are not just reacting to disruption—they are designing it out of the system.

Material composition is emerging as one of the most powerful levers in this shift. As the price gap between virgin and recycled plastics narrows, and as regulatory pressure increases, companies are reassessing their packaging portfolios with a different lens:

• Where can recycled content be increased?
• Which products are overly dependent on virgin materials?
• Which packaging formats create unnecessary cost or supply risk?

This is not just a sustainability discussion—it is a supply chain strategy decision. Increasing recycled content, for example, can:

• Reduce exposure to oil price volatility
• Improve availability through alternative material streams
• Lower regulatory costs such as plastic taxes and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) fees
• Strengthen alignment with circular economy requirements

At the same time, poorly designed packaging—difficult to recycle, complex in composition, or reliant on niche materials—often carries a double penalty:

• Higher material costs
• Higher EPR fees due to eco-modulation

In contrast, simpler, recyclable packaging can deliver both cost efficiency and supply stability.

Supply chain exposure

In order to calculate a company’s EPR or Plastic Tax obligations, SAP Responsible Design & Production [DW1] receives all of the needed logistics data from the ERP system – deliveries, imports, EU acquisitions and domestic purchases. It also keeps all of the packaging data for a company, including the weights and recycled content percentage of plastic packaging.

Therefore, it can easily answer questions like:

• How much virgin and recycled plastic did I use in total for 2025 in Spain?

To answer this question, a report configuration for Spanish Plastic Tax can be used, analyzing total weight alongside non-recycled weight within SAP Responsible Design and Production. With only minimal setup, this provides a clear baseline of plastic usage.

From a risk perspective, a supply chain manager may then ask:

• What is the proportion of domestically sourced, EU-acquired, and non-EU imported plastic in Spain over the last year?

The rationale is straightforward:

• Domestic sourcing may still be subject to price increases, but typically benefits from lower transportation costs and shorter lead times
• EU acquisitions may carry moderately higher costs due to logistics, but remain relatively stable
• Non-EU imports introduce the highest level of risk — including potential non-delivery, force majeure declarations, and significant cost increases due to disruption in key regions such as the Persian Gulf

By analyzing packaging flows by logistics process, a clear picture of sourcing dependency emerges. A typical outcome might show:

• ~3% internally produced packaging
• ~72% sourced from EU suppliers
• ~25% imported from non-EU regions
• Limited or no domestic sourcing

This immediately highlights structural exposure — particularly where reliance on imports is high — and signals the need to diversify suppliers or increase regional sourcing to mitigate cost and availability risks. The analysis can then be refined further by isolating suppliers from specific regions. By applying supplier-level filters, it becomes possible to quantify how much material is sourced from impacted geographies.

For example, this may reveal that plastic originates from suppliers in higher-risk regions. This level of insight enables targeted action:

• Estimating the volume that may need to be re-sourced
• Identifying alternative suppliers in more stable regions
• Prioritizing substitution strategies for specific materials

A deeper breakdown by material type may also show concentration in specific polymers — for example, a high dependency on HDPE sourced from a single region. From here, companies can move beyond visibility into action:

• Identifying alternative suppliers for critical materials
• Assessing substitution options at material level
• Understanding which products are most exposed based on packaging composition

This is where packaging data shifts from passive reporting to active supply chain risk management — enabling faster, more informed decisions in the face of disruption.

Spain was chosen as an example, but with the help of the User-defined report feature, supply chain managers can create a report category for tracking the plastic imports in whichever country they need:

Once I create and enable this user-defined report category, I can create a report configuration with filter by suppliers, in the same way I did for Spain Plastic Tax report configuration.

Turning disruption into advantage: Circular design as a lever

Crisis and innovation have always been linked. The oil shocks of the past drove more efficient engines and smaller vehicles. Today’s material disruptions are driving a new wave of innovation in packaging.

The companies that will lead are those that treat disruption not as a constraint—but as a design signal.

They are:

• Simplifying material choices
• Increasing recyclability
• Embedding circular design principles into product development
• Aligning packaging decisions with both cost and compliance outcomes

This is where circularity moves beyond sustainability rhetoric and becomes a commercial advantage.

Packaging designers may decide to use more recycled plastic in their packaging, and try to increase that share. In SAP Responsible Design and Production, they can use the Configure Design Rules feature to define a rule – for example that all plastic packaging must have at least 25% recycled content:

Then they can use the Design Rules Compliance app to see which products are not compliant with this rule—simple, effective, fast:

The path forward: From reactive management to proactive control

The question is no longer whether supply chains will be disrupted—it is whether your business is designed to absorb and adapt to that disruption.

For packaging-intensive industries, the answer increasingly depends on three capabilities:

• Visibility—understanding material flows, suppliers, and exposure
• Insight—quantifying risk, cost, and dependency
• Intervention—redesigning packaging to reduce vulnerability

Organizations that build these capabilities will move from reacting to disruption… to controlling it.

And in doing so, they will unlock something more powerful than resilience: They will turn supply chain volatility into a source of competitive advantage. Lower material usage, reduced fees, improved supply security, and stronger regulatory positioning all combine into a compelling business case.

In this sense, circular packaging is not just better for the environment—it is better for operating a resilient, profitable supply chain.

Conclusion

Packaging has long been seen as a downstream consideration—something to optimize once the product is defined. That view is no longer sustainable. In a world of material volatility, regulatory pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty, packaging sits at the intersection of cost, compliance, and continuity.

SAP solutions enable organizations to bring together packaging data, supply chain flows, and design intelligence—supporting a shift from fragmented reporting to real-time decision-making.

The companies that recognize this—and act on it—will not just survive the next disruption. They will be designed for it.