The state of e-commerce: Q3 2026
Discover the state of e-commerce for Q3, 2026 by diving into the trends and socioeconomic factors impacting the industry. Download the DocumentThe State of E-commerce,
Q3 2026
Q3 2026
The State of E-commerce, Q3 20262 | 9
U.S. retail e-commerce
sales in Q1 jumped 9.8%
compared to Q1 2025,
hitting $326.7 billion
If you’re using, watching, or working in e-com-
merce, you already know that 2026 didn’t come
to play. Between AI agents taking over parts of
the shopping journey, tariffs and global conflicts
shaking supply chains, and TikTok becoming
bigger than Target, there’s a lot to keep up with.
But the overall message? E-commerce is still
undeniably strong.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau1, U.S. retail
e-commerce sales in Q1 jumped 9.8% com-
pared to Q1 2025, hitting $326.7 billion, while
total retail sales grew 3.9%. This means that
e-commerce is now driving 16.9% of all U.S.
retail sales, and that share keeps climbing every
quarter. The worldwide view tells an even more
dramatic story: e-commerce is on track to reach
$6.88 trillion in 2026, representing over 21% of
all retail commerce across the globe, according
to Capital One Shopping Research2.
Now let’s dive into the trends shaping how the
money moves.
Commerce has moved on. Many brands haven’t.
What’s working, what’s not, and how to win
the second half of the year.
The land of online shopping is changing quicker than ever, getting more complicated than
ever, and – as ever – rewarding the prepared. Consumers are already shopping in an AI-
shaped, socially driven, mobile-first environment. Meanwhile, businesses are trying to
catch up with the operational and technology shifts required to be competitive. The
result is a widening gap between brands that are adapting to the new commerce reality
and those that are being overtaken by it.
U.S. retail e-commerce
sales in Q1 jumped 9.8%
compared to Q1 2025,
hitting $326.7 billion
If you’re using, watching, or working in e-com-
merce, you already know that 2026 didn’t come
to play. Between AI agents taking over parts of
the shopping journey, tariffs and global conflicts
shaking supply chains, and TikTok becoming
bigger than Target, there’s a lot to keep up with.
But the overall message? E-commerce is still
undeniably strong.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau1, U.S. retail
e-commerce sales in Q1 jumped 9.8% com-
pared to Q1 2025, hitting $326.7 billion, while
total retail sales grew 3.9%. This means that
e-commerce is now driving 16.9% of all U.S.
retail sales, and that share keeps climbing every
quarter. The worldwide view tells an even more
dramatic story: e-commerce is on track to reach
$6.88 trillion in 2026, representing over 21% of
all retail commerce across the globe, according
to Capital One Shopping Research2.
Now let’s dive into the trends shaping how the
money moves.
Commerce has moved on. Many brands haven’t.
What’s working, what’s not, and how to win
the second half of the year.
The land of online shopping is changing quicker than ever, getting more complicated than
ever, and – as ever – rewarding the prepared. Consumers are already shopping in an AI-
shaped, socially driven, mobile-first environment. Meanwhile, businesses are trying to
catch up with the operational and technology shifts required to be competitive. The
result is a widening gap between brands that are adapting to the new commerce reality
and those that are being overtaken by it.
The State of E-commerce, Q3 20263 | 9
The trends and turbulence shaping e-commerce
in the first half of 2026
1. This time, it’s serious: AI integration into the shopping
journey is no longer a trend; it’s become status quo in 2026
For years, we’ve been hearing about AI in
e-commerce as an emerging trend, but in
2026 it has officially gone from wanting a seat
at the table to actually deciding who gets in
the door to be seated at the table.
According to Capital One3, almost 60% of con-
sumers have used AI to shop, and AI-driven traf-
fic to U.S. retail sites has increased 4,700% year
over year. From ideation to virtually trying on
clothing or arranging your living room, AI is now
a key factor in every facet of the e-commerce
journey.
The rewards of AI in retail e-commerce are very
real: According toWiserReview5, retailers that
have fully embedded AI into their customer
journey are reporting a 15-25% revenue lift,
while AI-driven personalization is driving nearly
45% of all online conversions.
Meanwhile agentic commerce has taken center
stage as the latest rising star on the e-com-
merce stage. Agentic commerce uses autono-
mous AI agents to browse, compare and buy
online on a user’s behalf. Bain & Company pre-
dicts6 that the agentic commerce market could
reach between $300-500 billion by 2030. This
means that brands that aren’t building struc-
tured, machine-readable product data today
won’t even be visible to the commerce systems
of the future.
It’s no wonder then that according
to SAP persona research, 66% of
digital and commerce leaders
are focusing on creating
frictionless experiences across
channels – because every facet of
the shopping journey is critical to AI
e-commerce results4.
The trends and turbulence shaping e-commerce
in the first half of 2026
1. This time, it’s serious: AI integration into the shopping
journey is no longer a trend; it’s become status quo in 2026
For years, we’ve been hearing about AI in
e-commerce as an emerging trend, but in
2026 it has officially gone from wanting a seat
at the table to actually deciding who gets in
the door to be seated at the table.
According to Capital One3, almost 60% of con-
sumers have used AI to shop, and AI-driven traf-
fic to U.S. retail sites has increased 4,700% year
over year. From ideation to virtually trying on
clothing or arranging your living room, AI is now
a key factor in every facet of the e-commerce
journey.
The rewards of AI in retail e-commerce are very
real: According toWiserReview5, retailers that
have fully embedded AI into their customer
journey are reporting a 15-25% revenue lift,
while AI-driven personalization is driving nearly
45% of all online conversions.
Meanwhile agentic commerce has taken center
stage as the latest rising star on the e-com-
merce stage. Agentic commerce uses autono-
mous AI agents to browse, compare and buy
online on a user’s behalf. Bain & Company pre-
dicts6 that the agentic commerce market could
reach between $300-500 billion by 2030. This
means that brands that aren’t building struc-
tured, machine-readable product data today
won’t even be visible to the commerce systems
of the future.
It’s no wonder then that according
to SAP persona research, 66% of
digital and commerce leaders
are focusing on creating
frictionless experiences across
channels – because every facet of
the shopping journey is critical to AI
e-commerce results4.
The State of E-commerce, Q3 2026Social commerce is now
a key element of selling
products, especially for
Gen Z with 40% of
The Youth stating they
preferred TikTok and
Instagram.
2. Influence this: Social
commerce reigns supreme
Once labeled an emerging trend, social
commerce is now a key element of selling
today, especially for Gen Z, with 40% of
The Youth stating they preferred TikTok and
Instagram over traditional search methods7
like Google.
When it comes to finding new products, inter-
acting with brands, and authentic product rec-
ommendations that consumers trust, social
shopping is a juggernaut for online retailers.
And now with AI honing the experience and
algorithm, social commerce provides a mas-
sive opportunity for retailers to perfect per-
sonalized shopping experiences and product
recommendations in real-time.
The importance of social selling also means
that mobile commerce and digital wallets
aren’t a secondary elements when it comes to
selling in 2026; they’re foundational to driving
revenue and engaging customers.
It’s not just B2C brands who are capitalizing
on the power of social selling: LinkedIn is a
trusted platform that holds tremendous sway-
ing power for B2B buyers.
Despite this, more than half8 of marketing
leaders note that integration friction between
social media and their tech stack is the top
reason they struggle to recognize the ROI of
social platforms – which is why unified com-
merce is so critical to brands that want to
stand out and win with customers.
a key element of selling
products, especially for
Gen Z with 40% of
The Youth stating they
preferred TikTok and
Instagram.
2. Influence this: Social
commerce reigns supreme
Once labeled an emerging trend, social
commerce is now a key element of selling
today, especially for Gen Z, with 40% of
The Youth stating they preferred TikTok and
Instagram over traditional search methods7
like Google.
When it comes to finding new products, inter-
acting with brands, and authentic product rec-
ommendations that consumers trust, social
shopping is a juggernaut for online retailers.
And now with AI honing the experience and
algorithm, social commerce provides a mas-
sive opportunity for retailers to perfect per-
sonalized shopping experiences and product
recommendations in real-time.
The importance of social selling also means
that mobile commerce and digital wallets
aren’t a secondary elements when it comes to
selling in 2026; they’re foundational to driving
revenue and engaging customers.
It’s not just B2C brands who are capitalizing
on the power of social selling: LinkedIn is a
trusted platform that holds tremendous sway-
ing power for B2B buyers.
Despite this, more than half8 of marketing
leaders note that integration friction between
social media and their tech stack is the top
reason they struggle to recognize the ROI of
social platforms – which is why unified com-
merce is so critical to brands that want to
stand out and win with customers.
The State of E-commerce, Q3 20265 | 9
3. It’s complicated: Tariffs, de minimis, and supply
chain challenges
The whiplash effect of tariffs in 2026 have
complicated selling for most commerce sell-
ers this year, directly threatening margins and
bottom lines. Import fees on goods from
major manufacturing hubs range from 15% to
over 30%9 across high-volume categories like
apparel, raw materials, and electronics, and
it’s not just impacting sellers: consumers are
also continually citing tariff fees increasing
prices across multiple surveys since 2025.
While the Supreme Court’s striking down of cer-
tain IEEPA tariffs created a short tailwind for
some sellers across the e-commerce sector, a
new round of tariffs quickly muddied the waters
again. This means that supply chain flexibil-
ity isn’t just a supply chain problem, it’s a
business strategy problem impacting
nearly all sectors and industries.
All of this means that the efficiency and speed
of e-commerce operations rely heavily on uni-
fied commerce, from engaging customers to
supply chain innovations.
That’s why brands are integrating technologies
like AI and automation: it means that logistics
processes become faster, more precise, and
more sustainable, allowing brands to meet each
step in the buying journey with confidence and
reliability in an increasingly volatile world.
AI-enabled demand forecasting and machine
learning models can quickly aggregate and ana-
lyze massive amounts of sales data, seasonal
patterns, and even external factors like weather
or geopolitical events to predict demand. This
means inventory management is improved,
overstock and understock situations become
blips in the radar instead of revenue-altering
factors, and waste is minimized.
3. It’s complicated: Tariffs, de minimis, and supply
chain challenges
The whiplash effect of tariffs in 2026 have
complicated selling for most commerce sell-
ers this year, directly threatening margins and
bottom lines. Import fees on goods from
major manufacturing hubs range from 15% to
over 30%9 across high-volume categories like
apparel, raw materials, and electronics, and
it’s not just impacting sellers: consumers are
also continually citing tariff fees increasing
prices across multiple surveys since 2025.
While the Supreme Court’s striking down of cer-
tain IEEPA tariffs created a short tailwind for
some sellers across the e-commerce sector, a
new round of tariffs quickly muddied the waters
again. This means that supply chain flexibil-
ity isn’t just a supply chain problem, it’s a
business strategy problem impacting
nearly all sectors and industries.
All of this means that the efficiency and speed
of e-commerce operations rely heavily on uni-
fied commerce, from engaging customers to
supply chain innovations.
That’s why brands are integrating technologies
like AI and automation: it means that logistics
processes become faster, more precise, and
more sustainable, allowing brands to meet each
step in the buying journey with confidence and
reliability in an increasingly volatile world.
AI-enabled demand forecasting and machine
learning models can quickly aggregate and ana-
lyze massive amounts of sales data, seasonal
patterns, and even external factors like weather
or geopolitical events to predict demand. This
means inventory management is improved,
overstock and understock situations become
blips in the radar instead of revenue-altering
factors, and waste is minimized.