As the world faces an escalating environmental crisis, the conversation about packaging has never been more important. Every year, millions of tons of packaging waste pollute our planet, and the pressure is increasing for brands to make changes.

Global regulations are tightening, and consumer demand for sustainable solutions is growing. To stay relevant—and thrive—brands must take bold steps to redefine their packaging strategies.

But this isn’t just about meeting quotas or ticking sustainability boxes. It’s about creating a future where packaging is not only sustainable but regenerative, transforming waste into a valuable resource for the planet. Reclaiming and reusing responsibly.

New research from SAP Insights and the Foresight Academy examines the future of packaging as it plays out across three pivotal environments: the grocery store, the kitchen, and public spaces. Each of these settings represents a unique opportunity for innovation and effect.

In the grocery store, consumers are faced with choices about convenience and sustainability, and brands must balance these competing demands. In the kitchen, home disposal systems and refill mechanisms are reshaping how consumers engage with packaging daily. On the street, public recycling and reuse systems are growing, with brands playing a role in creating infrastructure that supports a sustainable future.

The transformation nexus

These three environments are more than just locations—they are where the rubber meets the road in terms of consumer behavior and brand responsibility. We’re about to give a snapshot of each of these environments in the short, medium, and long term for packaging transformation, refining recycling, implementing reuse, and using regenerative materials. But first, let’s take a quick look at the regulations designed to drive the change.

It's a complex field, but change is gaining impetus. Globally, a number of directives are coming online. In the EU, member states must hit a recycling rate for packaging of 65% by 2025 and 70% by 2030, when certain single-use packaging types will be banned entirely. Starting October 2025, the UK also has new packaging laws about extended producer responsibility (EPR), with variable fees for recycling and recovery costs. In the United States, some states have already passed packaging EPR legislation, while more are still under consideration.

Are companies ready?

The short answer is most are probably not. Despite the regulatory push, most businesses are far from prepared. A recent SAP Insights survey revealed that while 74% of companies in Italy, Portugal, and Spain know about new packaging regulations, 68% will need to make significant changes to comply. Most plan to increase recycled materials, but few are already tracking the data they will need for compliance.

To navigate plastic taxes and EPR regulations, SAP suggests four strategies:

1. Build the data infrastructure required for compliance reporting.
2. Promote a circular supply chain to manage materials from start to finish.
3. Collaborate with partners to drive compliance and innovation.
4. Prepare for a truly circular economy to improve resource efficiency and strength.

Let’s dive into the three horizons of change, focusing on how brands can adapt their packaging strategies across key environments—grocery stores, kitchens, and public spaces.

Horizon 1: All in on recycling (short term)

The grocery store: Competing for consumer attention

You may have already noticed that grocery stores are filled with packaging that highlights recyclability. As this develops, consumers encounter color-coded labels and toxin-free seals, and some stores offer incentives like credits for recycling soft plastics. With the EU aiming for 65% packaging recycling by 2025, brands must stay ahead or face compliance risks and consumer backlash.

The kitchen: Streamlining waste management

Consumers are more conscious than ever of their recycling efforts at home. Built-in recycling systems and compactors help manage waste efficiently, but packaging still needs to be easy to sort. Brands can lead by creating simpler, recyclable packaging with clearer instructions.

The street: Enhancing public recycling systems

On the streets, recycling islands have become more common but struggle to keep pace with the volume of waste. Future-focused brands will partner with cities to enhance public recycling systems, aligning with new regulations in the United States and Asia while building consumer trust.

Horizon 2: Seamless refill and reuse (midterm)

The grocery store: Rethinking refill

Grocery stores shift to refill stations and modular reusable containers. Consumers can refill grains, oils, and household products seamlessly, with brands using loyalty programs to encourage container returns. Reuse quotas push this transformation, and brands must adapt by offering both prefill and self-fill systems.

The kitchen: Refill becomes second nature

In the kitchen, refillable containers replace single-use items. Smart dispensers and home refill subscriptions bring convenience and sustainability together. Brands that invest in attractive, durable containers and personalized refill options will earn long-term consumer loyalty.

The street: Refill meets urban convenience

Public refill stations for beverages and bulk items become a common sight. Kiosks and drop-off points for reusable containers take over street corners, turning public spaces into hubs for sustainable consumption. Brands that invest in these systems will benefit from regulatory compliance and a stronger connection with eco-conscious consumers.

Horizon 3: Regeneration as the new standard (long term)

The grocery store: Packaging that heals

As showcases for regenerative packaging, stores offer products wrapped in materials that nourish the earth—picture dissolvable fruit packaging or compostable wrappers that could restore essential nutrients to ecosystems. Regulatory pushes for bio-based materials make these solutions a regulatory necessity. Futureproof brands lead by innovating with materials that go beyond recycling to actively restore ecosystems.

The kitchen: Composting is king

At home, composting becomes central to waste disposal. Smart composters break down both food and regenerative packaging, enriching the soil and completing the sustainability cycle. Brands experimenting with home-growable packaging materials like mycelium or algae can participate into this regenerative loop, transforming waste into opportunity.

The street: Urban regeneration in action

In public spaces, smart bins sort biodegradable packaging, while regenerative gardens flourish. Sponsored compost hubs and urban farming initiatives enhance the local environment, and brands that invest in these public systems will be seen as sustainability leaders.

How to prepare your brand for the future

To successfully navigate these three horizons, brands must not only adapt but lead. The responsibility of reshaping packaging falls on businesses that have the resources and reach to make a difference. Every decision made today will echo into the future—affecting consumer trust, regulatory compliance, and the planet’s health.

In the grocery store, the focus is on integrating recycling and reuse seamlessly into the shopping experience. Brands that succeed here will do so by ensuring that their packaging is not only easy to recycle but also designed for future reuse systems. In the kitchen, the emphasis is on making sustainable practices effortless for consumers. Refill systems, smart dispensers, and attractive reusable containers can transform sustainability from a chore into a lifestyle choice. On the street, the goal is to create public infrastructure that supports not just recycling, but full regeneration—turning waste into a resource for communities and ecosystems.

By embracing these changes, brands won’t just meet regulatory demands—they’ll become leaders in the next generation of packaging innovation. The future belongs to those ready to rethink waste, transforming it from a problem to an opportunity. Brands that act now will not only futureproof themselves but will shape the future of sustainable consumption, creating a world where packaging not only minimizes harm but also creates a positive impact.

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