We're back and at it again–doling out predictions for the year ahead like the all-seeing business psychics that we are.

Okay, fine. Busted. We immersed ourselves in the deluge of trend reports for 2024 from all the sources we could find and extracted the stuff you really need to know.

Because isn’t the world just something else right now? Never a dull moment and all that and, as much as we would all love a few dull moments at the moment, 2024 doesn’t seem to be the year that will happen.

Read on and prepare yourself.

TREND 1: Everything AI

It’s 9 a.m. Do you know what your developers are doing? Here’s a hint: They’re using generative AI (GenAI) for programming. Considering the cohort we’re talking about, this is unsurprising. Historically, this group has always jumped on new tech. Now, whether they have permission to do so is another matter. Most companies don’t have AI policies yet. Will they stop developers from using GenAI? Unlikely. (O’Reilly)

Why use off-the-rack when you can go couture? Last year was like the kiddie wading pool version of GenAI. Everyone jumped in, splashed around, yelled at the top of their lungs with glee, and kinda made a mess. This is the year to jump in the deep end, and that means considering industry-specific AI models that are trained on data that’s more relevant and useful to the business than just pictures of cats and dogs. Domain-specific large language models (LLMs) are trained specifically on, say, types of medical or legal data. One size definitely does not fit all. (Deloitte Tech Trends 2024)

Trust you, trust AI. Introducing AI tools to the workplace can be a touchy subject. But it turns out that when engaged workers trust the companies they work for, that equals more openness to AI in all its wondrous manifestations. What employees everywhere want is to use AI, but not be managed by it. Last year, we saw GenAI take off at a breakneck speed–and with very few guardrails. In 2024? Expect guardrails in company policies about the when, how, and why of using GenAI, including broader laws and higher expectations. (Qualtrics: 2024 Employee Experience Trends; O’Reilly)

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Hey! Let’s be careful out there.
  You need GenAI guidelines before employees get a bit too creative in using it–like maybe don’t use it for legal briefs–but also be realistic. Some workers (developers) will be more inclined to experiment and there are ways to encourage that safely.
• BYOAI.
  Create proprietary LLMs trained on your own data for competitiveness and security.
• Quell the fear.
  Many employees think AI is out for their jobs. But in many cases AI will be an assistant rather than a replacement. That’s why communications, management, and strategy come first–without clarity there won’t be trust. And without trust, GenAI won’t result in a sufficient return on investment (ROI).

TREND 2: CX/CS reboot

Botched bots. Customer service (CS) has been cut, cut, and cut again. The big human replacement hope was bots, which are fine if you’re too lazy to read the FAQ. But the novelty of your chatbot named Brian wore off a while ago. As a result, what’s also been cut back is customer trust. Let 2024 be the year when companies refocus their customer experience (CX). As chatbots improve, humans will become a premium offering. That could mean more humans available for the higher-value work of helping special and spendy clients. (Mintel: 2024 Global Consumer Trends)

Not everything as a service? You get a subscription, they get a subscription, everyone gets a subscription! Why? Because there’s no other choice! Subscription fatigue is real, and growth is slowing for software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies, with a 50% decrease in growth year-over-year. Lack of customization, costs, auto-renewals, belt tightening, and low ROI are all reasons why consumers and companies alike are rethinking whatever-as-a-service. There’s still something to be said for the simplicity of a one-time buy. (Accenture: Life Trends 2024; Maxio)

Inside knowledge. For those not going the human route this year, companies will roll out GenAI for personalized CS and marketing. How personalized? Companies will lean on GenAI for speed and for getting to know their customers beyond “What can I do for you today?” At the same time, marketers are reading the writing on the wall (think regulations and negative consumer sentiment) and will suddenly become big defenders of privacy. (Forrester: Predictions 2024)

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Give humans the luxury treatment.
  Bot CS will continue to grow but people respond better to other people, and that can be developed into a valuable offering. A well-trained human agent is the luxury offering of our time.
• Audit for airware. Remember shelfware?
  That shrink-wrapped software you bought but your people never used? Unused cloud-based software subscriptions can be even tougher to trace. Audit your subscriptions and ax what’s costing too much and what isn’t efficient.
• Avoid the same mistakes.
  Only use GenAI for CS if you’ve put in place clear goals and strategies to avoid replicating all that’s wrong with the CX.

TREND 3: Manufacturing

Coming soon: A factory near you. Reshoring has long been the trend that never quite happened. Well, it’s happening now. As we write, there’s a factory construction boom going on in Europe, the United States, and the not-China parts of Asia such as Japan, Korea, and India. It’s thanks in part to government investment encouraging domestic production of, among other things, semiconductors (cough, cough, China). Manufacturers are also taking the opportunity to smartify and greenify their new factories. (Deloitte: 2024 Manufacturing Industry Outlook; Reuters)

Cobot anyone? Manufacturing is still suffering through a skills shortage and trying to do something about it by offering (more, better) benefits and other incentives. Most say they need significantly more people and yet are consistently losing them–that’s some problematic math there. But, hey, why worry about people when bots are inelegantly lurching to a warehouse (job) near you? Will the Digits and Optimus Gen 2s get all snuggly and work together rather than with humans? Is it still cobotting if the collaborator is also a bot? (PWC; The Verge)

Making the industrial metaverse happen. Okay, we know. The industrial metaverse got a lot of attention at first and then…what? Not much. But apparently manufacturers have been experimenting with it in the background. And now we can add the spatial Web–aka Web 3–to manufacturers’ goals. Web 3 is focused on interactions in digital spaces (think virtual reality) and factories are signing up for virtual interactive applications. Think of it this way: Web 3 is how manufacturers get into the industrial metaverse. Once Web 3 is further developed, the industrial metaverse can finally take off. (Deloitte: Tech Trends 2024)

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Factory shopping.
  Is manufacturing coming to an industrial area near you? Maybe sign up for a presale to quickly reshore your own production.
• Don’t go botlistic . . . yet.
  Manufacturing’s hiring woes aren’t over quite yet, and don’t expect bots to do the heavy lifting of replacing lost workers. They are getting better, but the frenzied pace of adoption of software bots such as GenAI should not be confused with hardware bots, which are improving only incrementally.
• Don’t write off the metaverse (again).
  Just cause Zuck keeps whiffing on the killer app doesn’t mean you will. Mixed reality apps are quietly making a lot of progress in areas such as maintenance and research and development. Now’s the time to investigate the use of spatial technologies.

TREND 4: Supply chains

Going micro. One way of avoiding the peaks and troughs of recent supply chain upheavals is by focusing on micro-fulfillment–smaller, compact warehouses located closer to customers. Add to that smaller amounts of customized products, also produced close(-ish), and backups at the Panama Canal become a distant memory. (Maersk; Quartz)

AI meets supply chain meets regulation. GenAI is coming for the world’s supply chains. With more regulations related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) hitting in 2024, AI will be directing supply chain planning because of its ability to analyze tons of data and make predictions better than humans. That will be crucial toward finding out what’s going on in the chains at deeper levels. But it will only work for those with good data. (KPMG: Supply Chain Trends 2024)

Designing for disaster. Sure, you can reshore production to stave off international instability. But what about when your factory is flattened by a domestic tornado? Or ships can’t travel their usual routes? The Panama Canal and the Rhine and Mississippi rivers all had low water levels due to drought last year, and shipping felt the impacts. No wonder weather risks are top of mind for supply chain professionals. To prepare for long-term weather upheavals, designs must adapt, such as building ships that can navigate shallower waters and buildings that can stand up to 200 mph winds. (ING; Allianz)

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Use regulations to sell supply chain transparency.
  Supply chain pros have long struggled to prove a business case for spending money on supply chain transparency. ESG regulations will change all that and AI will help. But make sure to invest in data gathering and cleaning. It will be crucial for AI accuracy and regulatory compliance.
• Mini making.
  Breaking manufacturing down into smaller chunks (think modular construction) is your power hedge against supply chain problems.
• Talk about the weather.
  It’s no longer just a lame conversation starter. The weather can put you out of business. Check your infrastructure and that of your supply chain partners. Is it likely to survive disasters?

TREND 5: Enterprise tech

Head in both clouds. Companies have gotten the best out of the public cloud–such as efficiency and a lesser burden on IT–and are now turning to the private cloud, with its better security and customization. They’re balancing their hybrid cloud usage so that each plays to its own strengths. Upping the strength quotient are cloud and/or hybrid industry-specific platforms that can be customized. (Solve/Rackspace Technology: 2024 IT Outlook Report; Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2024)

Smart shady. After smart glasses failing repeatedly and spectacularly (remember the unfortunate nickname for wearers of Google Glasses?), will 2024 be the year when smart glasses finally become cool rather than cringe? New more comfortable and useful versions–better functionality, less weight on the wearer’s nose, classic styling so you can make like a Beach Boy and surf (the Web)–mean that initial hesitancy (or outright derision) might be overcome and that means a big boost to the spatial Web. Privacy? Do we still care about privacy? (Deloitte: Tech Trends 2024)

Get your data in court. Data breaches are the target of more–and often well-publicized–lawsuits, and more courts around the world are letting those cases go ahead. Another area of litigious growth is companies taking legal action against data scrapers, copyright infringers, hackers, and the like. Add AI to the legal mix for increased volume and messiness. Expect a ballooning of legal skirmishes as laws scramble to catch up and plaintiffs find new legal avenues to pursue.

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Going public.
  Investigate public and hybrid clouds for industry-specific applications that can be tailored to specific business needs.
• Never mind the fashion.
  While we’re not convinced that smart glasses will be the fashion choice, using them for work makes sense now that they’re more comfortable and have better features.
• Look both ways.
  Legal beefs over data hit businesses from both sides–coming from inside and outside the house. Legal prep is the solve.

TREND 6: HR

Where are we working again? Many employees prefer working remotely full-time or at least part of the work week. Just over half want all-the-time remote and 46% prefer a mix of both on- and off-site work. And many who were relying on promises of permanent remote work, moved to areas with lower costs of living. But what happens when employers mandate coming back to the office? Stalemate. With the skills shortage and the competition for those at the top of their game, more companies will start offering money for relocation to make working out of an office palatable again. They’ll also need to offer other sweeteners to stem the rising trend of coffee badging: showing up, getting a coffee, chatting with co-workers, then leaving to work remotely for the rest of the day. (Korn Ferry: Talent Acquisition Trends 2024; Yahoo! Finance)

Virtual you. You’ve heard of digital twins. Well, here comes virtual twins. That’s when employees make digital avatars of themselves using AI trained on specific skills and industries to do work on their behalf–and maybe even earn extra money doing it. Why worry about overworking employees when they can replicate themselves many times over? On the flip side, companies could support these twins and train them on proprietary data. The big question: Who–or what–owns the rights to their/its output? (Backslash; Slate)

The end of jobs. Who cares about jobs when what you need are skills? Technology is changing so quickly that skill obsolescence is a real concern, and that’s motivating employers and employees to focus on continual skill improvements. Makes sense that instead of hiring for specific roles, businesses will look for skills that can be applied across their companies and will offer education to make that fluidity permanent. (Backslash)

INSIGHTS’S ADVICE:

• Go into the wilderness.
  Disgruntled remotes could be good recruitment targets for companies that don’t care where people work. Another strategy: Start offering relocation benefits and bonuses.
• Meet me later.
  Stan, meet Stan–and Stan. A little sci-fi right now but think what it would mean to increase productivity exponentially.
• Ditch the descriptions.
  Get the skills you need by ditching job descriptions and embracing the free flow of knowledge.