Once upon a time, the changing of the year was marked by hanging a new calendar on the wall. Nowadays we have something else: the appearance of annual predictions and trend lists.

It's understandable to take comfort in thinking that we can know what the future will bring. That's why horoscopes and tarot cards are so popular! But instead of clairvoyants, the business world has analysts and consultants .

So, we read the cards—well, many, many analysts' reports, trend reports, and futurists' reports—flew a kite close to the sun, and stuck a finger in the air. Here we present for your consideration (and hopefully delight) the definitive list of exactly what will happen over the next year (or so).

Supply chain jam: Going with the production flow

1. Plus-ones for the supply chain party. China, the place where (almost) everything comes from, is experiencing a popularity crisis. Meanwhile, the broader Southeast Asia region has developed into a viable alternative provider of goods (Vietnam is now the world’s second largest exporter of smartphones, for example). That won’t mean a complete divorce from China, more like, hmm, an open relationship. The spread of manufacturing could make for a more stable supply chain situation—eventually. In the short-term, though, China is still crucial for stuff so expect a rocky year ahead, according to BNP Paribas.

2. Get used to it. The key word here is permacrisis. Yes, that is now a word, according to Collins Dictionary! Environmental disasters are increasing in number and scope, we have global fragility, and there’s a pandemic. Sorry to be a downer, but it's better to be realistic. Sure, some things seem normal-ish: People are back at work, travel, and play (mostly); and the stockpile of goods waiting in warehouses during the pandemic is trickling out as people revive their buying habits. But we really can’t be bubbly, because pandemics don’t play nice or predictably. COVID-19 is hanging on and with inflation and general concerns about the economies—yours, mine, theirs—consumer demand won't come roaring back in 2023. This year’s global trade growth is expected to sit at 1%, well below the 10-year average of 2% to 3%, according to ING.

Insights’ advice

• Don’t panic. For all the talk about saying adieu to China, it will still be vital to supply chains. Just don’t think you’re BFFs anymore.
• Think longer term. Don’t forget that the COVID-19 supply chain crisis wasn’t just about shortages; it also revealed the spotty communications, poor IT networking, and overemphasis on low cost that have long been lurking around our supply chains like bullies on the playground. Keep making investments in better supply chains, but with an eye to a broader time horizon.
• Make new friends. It’s “friendshoring” time. Look for supply chain partners that are the kind you want to hang out with, share a beverage and talk about good times.

Sources

• “Investment Outlook 2023: Investing in an Age of Transformation” (BNP Paribas Asset Management)
• 5 Trends for 2023: Embracing Chaos, Taking Charge (IBM Institute for Business Value)
• ING's 2023 Outlook (ING)
• “Over 100 Data and Analytics Predictions Through 2025” (Gartner Research)

Computing, we hardly knew ye

3. Crime, at your service. How convenient. If you're up to no good, that is. Instead of hackers having to make their own evil tools, they can be bought off the rack, just like other tech platforms. Crime as a service includes ransomware as a service and malware as a service—in other words, plug-and-play villainy. But it gets worse: There’s also reconnaissance as a service, where digital criminals hire digital detectives, basically outsourcing research for sensitive info like financial data or credentials that can help sharpen their attacks, predicts Fortinet.

4. AI’s teenage crisis. There have been plenty of shiny, new AI products that looked great at first glance, yet flatlined when it turned out they couldn't scale. Although some would say that scale is the least of AI’s problems. And why do baby AIs get moody and rebellious when they become teenagers? It’s because their data diet stinks—low quantity, poor quality, and convoluted architecture—you know the drill. “This is the year for a makeover,” says McKinsey.

5. Everybody in the code pool! Low-code/no-code apps are taking over and being created by, as Gartner calls them, citizen developers. We had no idea developers weren't citizens, but okay. Anyway, LC/NC is growing quickly because it’s cheap ’n easy—Gartner says it’ll make up 65% of apps by 2025—making us all citizens and developers.

Insights’ advice

• Life of (no) crime. We’re not suggesting joining the baddies. We are suggesting that you familiarize yourself with the various dark clouds on the horizon. Then, at least, you can say the phrases threat landscape and identity threat detection and response without a jargon decoder ring.
• When in Codeland… It’s no use resisting the trend toward LC/NC. The easier coding gets, the easier it will be for everyone to get into the act—which will be a good thing for businesses in the long term. But don’t just give an AOK to the DIY. Incorporate LC/NC into employee training. And make sure IT is still in charge so things don’t get out of control.
• AI is what it eats. If you’ve tried ChatGPT, you know it spews a lot of garbage. That’s because it doesn’t have much to work with data-wise. So focus on the extremely boring tasks of cleaning and growing your data. But don’t just do it for AI; do it for your customers, too, who are tired of getting junk mail addressed to their deceased loved ones.

Sources

• Cyber Threat Predictions for 2023 (Fortinet)
• “New Year, New Tech, No Problem” (McKinsey Digital)
• Accenture Life Trends 2023 (Accenture Song)
• frog Trends 2023 (frog)
• “Over 100 Data and Analytics Predictions Through 2025” (Gartner Research)

Humans and resources

6. Who’s got talent? Not enough companies, apparently. The skills crunch is big and getting bigger quickly. Just check out this stat: In the U.S. alone, there are 10.7 million jobs just waiting for that perfect hire. Solving the skills crisis means there’s really no choice but to think outside the box (start by not using clichés like “think outside the box”). Companies are being strategic: they’ll swoop in to get that talent before it’s even hatched by targeting schools and other training organizations to sign up students before the ink on their diplomas or certificates is dry. Those companies will figure out training for those new hires that's hyper-focused on specific skills. And they’ll look at stats like this one: 2023 U.S. salary budgets are expected to increase by just 4%—roughly half the 2022 rate of inflation, and think really, really hard about what they could possibly do to attract workers. What could that possibly (more money) be?

7. Red scare! Collective ownership is coming to strike fear into the hearts of capitalists everywhere. Are we talking about (gasp!) communism? Heaven forfend—don't revoke our Adam Smith credentials! Nope, we’re talking about decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). A DAO is a collective structure that’s owned and run by members. DAOs are smart all the way, in the digital sense, at least: blockchain and smart contracts are the digital tools that make DAOs possible because they provide transparency and decentralization. A few early examples went down in flames (see: FTX) but there is a consistently growing number of DAOs offering some new (well, slightly digitally repurposed) ideas about how companies are formed, owned, and run in a world that’s increasingly digital by default.

8. The Keystrikes Back. The "work from where?" debate is getting hotter. Some companies—Forrester says 40%—are making news because they’re trying to get workers (and by get, we mean order) back to the office, and that ain't going down well. We understand that office leases and real estate are expensive, but still. Then there are the companies that are keeping remote work (in whatever form) but also turning to surveillance tech to track what their workers are doing when they work remotely. This is apparently due to concerns about productivity, even though there’s plenty of research (mostly pandemic-induced) that shows remote work does not negatively affect productivity. Quite the opposite. Old habits die hard, we guess. Why consider quality when quantity is so easy to monitor, right? But 2023 will see more attention paid to work-tracking software by lawmakers, rights groups, and workers themselves.

9. How AIre you? Calling an AI a colleague is, in our humble opinion, questionable (file under: anthropomorphizing). But in 2023 companies will grapple with AI trust in terms of its direct effects on actual human employees. Companies will opt for clarity and transparency to help their people—actual people—understand the AI they’re using. Much remains to be seen, however, like which doughnuts our AI colleagues prefer, filled or glazed? (Asking the important questions here.)

10. C-suite AI? Why constrain AI to its greatest hits—chatbots and RPA and other biz tools? Some companies, like rum brand Dictador and gaming company NetDragon Websoft, have “hired” AI bots as CEOs to help them become Web 3.0 businesses. In Dictador’s case, CEO “Mika” will be running, among other tasks, the brand’s DAO. (Do we spot a trend?) Guess that’s one way to put a check on executive comp packages.

Insights’ advice

• Hands off. Research has shown that even just knowing that they’re being tracked stresses employees and lowers their productivity, so maybe rethink that, m’kay? Rather, find a way that balances your curiosity with worker comfort.
• AI, Minions version? We need a new vernacular for AI at work. Instead of calling AI a colleague, how about an ally? A crony? Bro?
• Job (re)placement. Here we thought AI was going to replace actual jobs. Instead it’s taking on executive duties. To those sitting in expensive corner window offices, maybe think about retraining yourselves?

Sources

• 5 Trends for 2023: Embracing Chaos, Taking Charge (IBM Institute for Business Value)
• “Disruptive Innovations IX” (Citi Institutional Clients Group)
• Predictions 2023: Fortune Favors the Bold and the Focused (Forrester Research)
• Tech Trends 2023 (Deloitte Insights)
• The Future 100: 2023 (Wunderman Thompson Intelligence)

Sustainability: Hot and getting hotter. Literally.

11. So, about those end times. Can’t look away from the Doomsday Clock? Wondering about business survival (or just survival)? A survey from IBM finds that while most organizations have a sustainability strategy, less than half (35%) have actually put it into motion. External pressures are increasing but opposition persists, often due to people unconvinced by ROI and reliant on conventional fiscal metrics. Well, it’s time to get it in gear. The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive kicked off in January, and that’s just one example of regulations and pressures that are forcing companies to up their sustainability. Needed: More action on commitments, greener providers, and prioritizing sustainability. Delay further at your peril (and the planet's).

12. Green it like you mean it. Regulators are on to the fakers. As Forrester puts it, 2023 is the year “greenwashing becomes a serious business risk.” Why? Because fines are being given and they are not insignificant. Plus people care. Companies may still be obsessed with shareholder value, but regular people are watching their personal wealth, stability, communities, and hopes for the future go up in flames and drown in floods. 2023: Let’s do better.

Insights’ advice

• Unconvinced? Spend some quality time brushing up on the various environmental regulations launching soon and do a risk analysis of noncompliance. Or just sit back, do nothing, and risk a police raid. Really doesn’t seem like much of a choice, come to think.
• In case you were wondering: The Doomsday Clock is currently 90 seconds to midnight.

Sources

• 5 Trends for 2023: Embracing Chaos, Taking Charge (IBM Institute for Business Value)
• DEPT 2023 Trends Report (DEPT)
• Asia Pacific Predictions 2023 (Forrester Research)
• "Corporate Sustainability Reporting” (European Commission)