|
|
|
|
BUSINESS IN 2004
|
| |
|
Global Economy
Global economic growth stronger than in previous year
After the inertia of 2003, there was noticeably more activity in
the global economy in 2004, but some momentum was lost
again as the year progressed. Chief among the causes was the
second-half deceleration in the United States and China.
Nonetheless, 2004 saw some 5% real growth in the world economy,
according to an analysis by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). That is the best annual rate of growth since 2000.
Strong demand in Asia and the United States were the key
drivers boosting economic activity.
Among the key factors in the global economy in 2004
were the high prices for oil and other raw materials, which
led to a sustained rise in costs and a significant reduction in
disposable personal income. The Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) also sees the oil price
as the real brake on economic activity.
In 2004, the industrialized countries’ contribution to
the growth of gross world product (the value of all goods
produced and services provided) was slightly smaller than that
of the emerging countries. Indeed, growth was remarkably
strong in the emerging markets in 2004. For example, the IMF
estimates that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose at
least 9 %. The combined economies of eastern Asia grew 5.4%
according to the annual “Fall Report” on the state of the global
and German economy, published by the six major German
economics research institutes. In Japan, the government
reported national economic growth of 2.6 % for 2004, a slight
improvement on the previous year’s 2.5 %, but well below
observers’ expectations. Late in 2004, the OECD still expected
the year’s growth in Japan to be 4 %, but these hopes were
dashed by a poor fourth quarter. According to the Fall Report,
the Russian economy was highly dynamic, with 7% growth in
2004 (2003: 7.3 %).
The OECD’s numbers for the United States economy
in 2004 show 4.4 % growth; the figure for 2003 was just under
3.0 %. The OECD also recorded resuscitated growth in the
eurozone in 2004 – albeit at a rather modest level. According
to the Fall Report, the increase in economic activity in the
European Union in 2004 was 2.4 %, whereas only 1% growth
was achieved in the year before.
The OECD’s estimate shows Germany still underperforming
in comparison, although with economic growth
at 1.2% in 2004 it was doing better than in zero-growth 2003.
While personal spending remained restrained under increasing
pressure from fuel costs as the year progressed, advances
elsewhere provided a welcome boost for German exporters. |
|
