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      Home > Review of Operations > Outlook for 2005 > Forecast for SAP
       
 

FORECAST FOR SAP

 

Strategic goals
SAP believes it is well positioned as fiscal year 2005 gets under way. This is because in 2004 its software revenue climbed back into double digits and it won peer group share, and because of its clearly defined solution strategy for the medium term.

For the medium term, SAP attaches exceptional importance to its concept for business applications of the future, Enterprise Services Architecture. Specifically, it seeks to develop SAP NetWeaver from a technology platform into a platform for business processes (Business Process Platform). That means the platform will combine infrastructure technology with a portfolio of preconfigured business process modules that customers can adapt for their own needs. The resulting convergence of applications and infrastructure has been termed “applistructure” by Forrester Research.

Establishing Business Process Platform, and applications powered by it, opens up to SAP’s customers the freedom to simplify their own processes and workplaces and to add their own features. To SAP, Business Process Platform is the road to intelligently combining and configuring reusable services to quickly and efficiently build innovative business solutions. Moreover, it will be simpler to integrate products that independent software vendors build for Business Process Platform with SAP’s own solution offering. These approaches all add up to new potential for revenue and greater profitability for SAP.

To build from that base, the Company has identified four strategic priorities for 2005:

  • To grow revenue, especially software revenue
  • To establish itself as a leading player in the applistructure arena
  • To extend its position as a leading supplier of solutions for SMBs
  • Internally, to ensure that the Company operates as effectively and efficiently as possible so that it has more freedom to invest

It is SAP’s aim to complete Enterprise Services Architecture by 2007. That means all of SAP’s applications must run on Business Process Platform by then, starting with mySAP All-in-One in 2006. For two reasons, 2005 is a pivotal milestone on that road. First, the Company will ship mySAP Business Suite and almost all of the industry solutions on SAP NetWeaver. Second, SAP will release the first Business Process Platform to some independent software vendors as a beta to test whether it is attractive enough for them as a basis for independent development and to gather experience for subsequent developments. The Company will also work on convincing customers of the benefits of the platform’s standardized processes.

Operational goals: growth and investment
In 2005, SAP aims to post double-digit software revenue growth for the second year in a row and thus win more peer group share again – and outperform the growth of the overall IT industry. At the same time, 2005 will be a year of investments. Investment will focus on driving forward development of Business Process Platform and the product offering, continuing the alignment to volume business, and reinforcing sales and marketing. It is not intended that investment will cause pro-forma operating margin to decline. At the beginning of the year, SAP published the following outlook for fiscal year 2005:
  • The Company expects software revenue to increase in a range of 10% – 12% compared to 2004. The growth would be driven by the Americas and Asia-Pacific.
  • It expects the pro-forma operating margin, which excludes stock-based compensation and acquisition-related charges, to increase in a range of 0.0–0.5 percentage points compared to 2004.
  • It expects pro-forma earnings per share, which exclude stock-based compensation, acquisition-related charges, and impairment-related charges, to be in the range of €4.70–€4.80 per share. SAP assumes the effective tax rate will be under 36%.

The outlook is based on an assumed U.S. dollar to euro exchange rate of US$1.30 = €1.00. These operational goals are also premised on the expectations that the economy will be stable and that the buying behavior of customers will conform to the usual seasonal pattern, with revenue at its strongest in the fourth quarter.

As in previous years, the major portion of the planned investment is earmarked for new hires, who would be taken on as needed to meet actual requirements. If the year unfolds as expected, some 3,000 FTEs would be added to the total headcount. Some 20 % of the new positions would be in Germany, confirming SAP’s belief in Germany as a place to do business. SAP anticipates that a significant proportion of the new jobs will be located in India and China, without reducing numbers in other locations.

It is planned to accumulate liquid assets in readiness for major investments, acquisitions, and the share buy-back program.

In the medium term, SAP expects further improvements in its business. It plans for organic growth augmented by selected promising acquisitions. The Company intends to generate additional revenue in the next three years from new users and solutions, license fees from customers and partners that deploy Business Process Platform, and by acquiring complementary products and integrating them into the offering. It anticipates that with such revenue growth and with increased productivity in software development and maintenance, the Company will sustain the forward momentum of its pro-forma operating margin, which is expected to exceed 30% by 2007.

       
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