Global economy

Signs of worldwide economic recovery
For the global economy, 2003 was not as good as many had anticipated. Actual world economic growth was lower than expected. At the end of 2002, the World Bank forecast overall economic growth of 2.5% for 2003. In September 2003, the World Bank revised that estimate to an even 2%. Likewise, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) initially forecast 1.8% growth for the euro zone in 2003, but later downgraded its expectations and in February 2004 published a final growth rate for the euro zone of just 0.4%.

Global development was hampered in the first few months of 2003 by the war in Iraq, the SARS outbreak, and other factors, but general economic production in the industrialized nations began to rise in the second quarter of 2003. However, growth was uneven. The United States led the improvement with a consumer-fueled recovery. Capital spending in the United States only began to increase toward the end of 2003.

After more than a decade of recession, the Japanese economy experienced a long-awaited recovery. According to the OECD, the Japanese economy benefited in particular from a better investment climate in the process industries and the positive development of neighboring economies. In contrast, the economy of the euro zone remained relatively stagnant. In their expert report published in the fall of 2003, the six leading German institutes for economic research predicted zero gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Germany in 2003.